The odds are that Bush will finish his second term, but it's not a sure bet. In fact, he's probably in more danger than he realizes.
There's an excellent article in the San Francisco Chronicle this morning by the paper's Washington Bureau Chief, Carolyn Lochhead, entitled "GOP is in 'deep funk' over Bush spending." It notes among other things that Bush's support among Republicans slipped by eleven points in March, probably due to the Dubai Ports deal, which galvanized anti-Bush feelings within his own party.
What Repubicans and other conservatives are unhappiest about of course is the spending, especially the prescription drug plan/giveaway to big drug companies, and all the earmarked legislation. It's not politics, but incompetence and to some extent dishonesty that have them upset.
There are some interesting details about earmarks in the article which show that Bush is either not dealing a straight deck or not playing with a full deck. He appears to not know what he's talking about, or if he does, he's lying as usual.
Dissatisfaction with this administration is quickly gathering like a huge black storm cloud. The Democrats are unlikely to take back either house of Congress next year (they'd need to pick up six seats in the Senate and 15 in the House), but even if they don't I think impeachment looms as an outside possibility.
If you like betting against the odds, bet on it.
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