Passover and Out

The U.S. consumes 20 million barrels of oil a day, and domestic production accounts for six million of those. That means we have to get 14 million barrels a day from somewhere else, and most of the people that live in the most significant of those somewhere elses hate us. That's a problem.

The decision was taken sometime back that we can solve our problems by being the biggest, baddest s.o.b. on the planet. It's called "win by intimidation."

However, Immanuel Wallerstein offers his opinion in his book "The Decline of American Power" that "hawk interpretations are wrong and will only contribute to the United States' decline, transforming a gradual descent into a much more rapid and turbulent fall."

Wallerstein takes a brief survey of the superpowers of the past, and the countries that overtook them and replaced them, and concludes, "The dominant power concentrates (to its detriment) on the military; the candidate for successor on the economy. The latter pays off handsomely. It did for the United States."(Emphasis mine.)

The neocons, if they had any sense of history, would recall that our participation in WWII was late, modest, and restrained except for our material contribution from our factories and farms, and that at war's end we were the only undamaged superpower left standing.

We may have forgotten, but others haven't. You might want to think about exchanging your dollars for Yuan. John Ince in a recent piece at AlterNet observes, "In the last few weeks, we began to see signals that the consequences may come sooner than most Americans expect. According to Business Week, both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have raised their interest rates - which could signal that the days of foreign investors propping up the U. S. economy may soon be on the wane. Bottom line, this potentially will have serious consequences for all Americans, but especially for average Americans living on the edge of poverty.

"The first consequence will be a rapid decline in Americans' standard of living. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke insists the economy is strong, because many of the traditional measures of economic growth remain solid. Inventory levels, corporate profits and unemployment statistics all point towards continued growth. But what about the $3 billion a day that Americans cumulatively spend on interest payments? What about the estimated $834 billion that Americans have borrowed off their mortgages last year alone? Do average Americans have any kind of savings to use as a cushion in the event of a "hard landing?" Can an already-hard-working single mom just go back into the job market to make ends meet when serious inflation kicks in?

"Second, should our debt levels continue to increase at unsustainable rates, we will soon reach a point where foreign investors demand an interest rate premium for lending to us. Or worse yet, they may simply decide to put their money in other financial instruments than U. S. Treasury bonds, which will suck the wind out of the U. S. economy very rapidly and likely lead to recession or a depression."

That about covers it, except for the effects of four-to-five-dollar gas and the end of the housing bubble.

And while it's all true, I wish Ince had looked on the bright side. A poverty-stricken, debt-crippled U.S. government, will probably still be able to provide for the national defense, but will lose the ability to launch foreign wars. The influence of the national government will decline in every sector; there'll be a new emphasis on local production, consumption, and self-reliance. Isn't that what Grover Norquist wanted?

So let's celebrate the advent of bad times/good times. How convenient that tomorrow is Passover. I like Mattisyahu's idea: "Let's pass out for Passover," so somebody be sure to "bring some weed over" and we'll all drink "Mazeltov cocktails."