Tuesday, January 03, 2006

2006: Five Bucks an Hour and Four Buck Gas

You don't have to be Jeanne Dixon to figure this stuff out.

*The year kicked off with the Abramoff scandal, which will end up bringing down 20 or so Congressional figures and large numbers of auxiliary lesser fry, all or most of them Republicans. The breadth and depth of the scandal insures a Democratic takeover of at least the House of Representatives, and possibly both houses in early 2007, although the Democrats have done nothing to deserve such good fortune.

*After being lulled to sleep by post-Katrina infusions of crude oil from the American and European Union strategic oil reserves, Americans will be shocked to see gasoline prices rising rapidly again in 2006, and this time they will run all the way up to four dollars a gallon. Crude has once more resumed its relentless climb, closing today over 63 dollars a barrel. The realization that Saudi production has peaked will dawn on stupefied and amazed U.S. "consumers," a year or more after the fact.

*The housing bubble will either bust or hiss loudly, largely but not exclusively because of escalating energy prices. Another big factor will be rising interest rates. Homeowners, many of whom have purchased second properties for speculative purposes, will find themselves in hock for depreciating real estate no longer worth the amounts for which they are indebted.

*U.S. troops will begin their overdue pullout from Iraq as the air force moves in to take up the slack left by the departing grunts. However, the long-range plan for Iraq hinges establishing permanent American bases in the country, which will then be left to more or less go its own way, but under the shadow of a perpetual U.S. presence. This is the Persian Gulf region equivalent of Fort Apache in the Bronx.

*The Republican Congress will refuse to increase the $5.15 per hour minimum wage.

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